Ten weeks have passed since Canadians voted in the federal election, and three topics continue to dominate the public’s mind.
For more than one in five of the country’s residents (22 per cent, down four points since our ), the most important issue facing the country is Canada-U.S. Relations. Concerns are also notable for the economy and jobs (21 per cent, up one point); and housing, homelessness and poverty (18 per cent, down three points).
The significant level of support that the Liberal Party received from voters aged 55 and over in April has not dwindled. The Liberals are backed by 47 per cent of decided voters across Canada, but their fortunes climb to 52 per cent among the oldest and most reliable voting demographic.
The Conservatives are still in second place, but now 10 points behind the Liberals (37 per cent). Voters aged 18-34, who looked at the official Opposition as the vehicle for a desired change in housing, are no longer as convinced. Among the country’s youngest adults, the Liberals are now ahead (44 per cent to 35 per cent).
Majorities of Ontarians (53 per cent) and British Columbians (52 per cent) are now solidly behind the Liberals. This is a perfect reversal of the first survey we conducted , when more than half of decided voters in each of these provinces were supporting the Conservatives.
Prime Minister Mark Carney enjoys an approval rating of 61 per cent, up two points since our pre-election measurement. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, currently without a seat in the House of Commons, has seen his numbers drop from 48 per cent in late April to 44 per cent .
A more troubling scenario for Poilievre ensues on the question of issue management. With the exception of crime and public safety, where the Conservative leader trails the Liberal head of government by two points (37 per cent to 39 per cent), Carney has sizeable advantages on all other issues tested, including the three that are deemed most important by Canadians right now: Washington, D.C. (53 per cent to 28 per cent), finances (49 per cent to 33 per cent) and homes (41 per cent to 33 per cent).
Carney heads to the second half of 2025 with a 16-point lead as Canada’s preferred Prime Minister (47 per cent, with Poilievre at 31 per cent). Even in Alberta, where the Conservatives remain popular, Poilievre’s personal potential is starting to wane: 42 per cent of residents of this province think Carney would make the best prime minister compared with 40 per cent for Poilievre.
We may look back at this survey as a low moment for Poilievre. The idea of a “broken” country is no longer rooted in the Canadian psyche. Without a presence in the House of Commons, it is difficult for the Conservative leader to gain traction. That might change after the Battle River—Crowfoot byelection that will take place next month, but a return to the glory days of 2024, when Poilievre was consistently regarded as superior to Justin Trudeau, is not assured.
The other aspect that might move these numbers is the leadership race for the NDP. The party is currently where it was on election night, tied for third place with the Bloc Québécois (six per cent each). Rallying a base without a full-time leader is a particularly difficult task in a parliamentary democracy.
Our survey tested nine possible leadership contenders, and not one is significantly ahead of the rest. Favourability is highest for former NDP House leader Ruth Ellen Brousseau at 18 per cent, and at least one in five Canadians say they would like to see four people serve as leaders: former 小蓝视频 MLA and current 小蓝视频 MP Jenny Kwan (22 per cent), current Alberta MP Heather McPherson (21 per cent), former MP and former Vancouver mayor Kennedy Stewart (20 per cent), and former 小蓝视频 MP and MLA Nathan Cullen (also 20 per cent).
The migration of long-time NDP voters to the Liberals on account of Carney’s leadership—and Donald Trump’s mouth—is not lost on Canadians. More than a third (37 per cent) think it is time for the Liberals and the NDP to merge. This group includes 47 per cent of Liberal voters and 43 per cent of NDP voters in the 2025 election. It would be ironic if the statements about Canada becoming an American state ultimately led to the creation of a true two-party system, even if the colours representing the “left” and the “right” are switched on the Canadian map.
Mario Canseco is president of Research Co.
Results are based on an online study conducted from June 30 to July 2, 2025, among 1,001 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
