OTTAWA — Statistics Canada says retail sales rose 0.3 per cent to $70.1 billion in April, helped by gains in sales at new and used car dealers, however economists say they expect a slowdown ahead.
The agency says its preliminary figures for May point to a drop of 1.1 per cent for that month.
Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CI小蓝视频 Capital Markets, said in a note to clients Friday that as consumers continued to spend in April, the decline in May retail sales estimates “provides another indication that the economy is heading for a stall in Q2.”
“That renewed consumer caution amid tariff uncertainty and a weakening labour market is likely to persist for a little while yet, and we continue to expect two more 25 (basis point) interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada in the second half of the year to help support a recovery,” he said.
Maria Solovieva, an economist at TD Bank, had a similar outlook regarding the early estimates for May, saying they set a “sombre tone” for the second quarter.
“In addition, our internal credit and debit card spending data shows a meaningful softening in spending through May, suggesting that consumers tightened their purse strings,” Solovieva said in a note to clients Friday.
“As a result, we expect real personal consumption expenditures to be flat this quarter, with consumer spending likely to contract in Q3 if U.S. tariffs continue to weigh on sentiment and job prospects.”
For April, six of nine subsectors were up as sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers gained 1.9 per cent, boosted by a 2.9 per cent increase at new car dealers and a 2.1 per cent rise at used car dealers.
As anticipated, Solovieva said consumers continued to “front-load” purchases of vehicles ahead of expected price increases due to tariffs.
Sales at sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, book, and miscellaneous retailers rose one per cent, while furniture, home furnishings, electronics and appliances retailers gained 0.8 per cent. Sales at clothing, clothing accessories, shoes, jewelry, luggage and leather goods retailers fell 2.2 per cent.
Core retail sales, which exclude gasoline stations and fuel vendors and motor vehicle and parts dealers, gained 0.1 per cent in April.
In volume terms, overall retail sales rose 0.5 per cent in April.
Statistics Canada also noted that 36 per cent of retail businesses said they were impacted by trade tensions in April. Some of the most common impacts included price increases, demand changes and supply chain disruptions.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 20, 2025.
The Canadian Press
